In November 2012, the World Bank released a
report calling for tackling the issue of global warming. Pointing out the risks
of a 4°C temperature rise on Earth, this report is a significant step towards a
wider mobilization.
The reality
of global warming has been debated about a long time before political leaders
around the world finally agreed on a consensus. Doubt about what is now recognised as one of the biggest danger of our century is
no longer an option. The World Bank made a strong statement in this regard by
releasing an alarming report.
This document is entitled “Turn Down the Heat: Why a 4°C Warmer World Must be
Avoided” and highlights the shape of the world to come if global warming is not
controlled in the present years. Needless to say, the World Bank’s conclusions
are gloomy. The 4°C temperature increase could very well be reached by 2100,
and such an option would shattered most opportunity for global development
A further step in the recognition of global warming
“Turn Down
the Heat” was realized by Climate Analytics and the Potsdam Institute for
Climate Impact Research on the behalf of the World Bank. Its President, Jim
Yong Kim, commented on the report’s release, saying his hope was that “this
report shocks us into action”. Such a statement illustrates how seriously global
warming is considered at the top of the world economic governance.
The report
is making a simple point. Considering the past and present trends of global
warming, there is a 20 per cent chance that the Earth’s temperature will rise
by 4 degrees Celsius (7.2 degree Fahrenheit) by 2100. These conclusions are
echoing those of many researchers on the subject. For instance, they match the
findings of Pricewaterhouse Coopers which stated in a previous report
that limiting global warming below 4°C would require quadrupling the rate of
decarbonisation.
The World
Bank’s recent report includes a collection of the most up to date scientific data
about climate. It confirms the risks that were pointed out by the World
Development Report on climate change in 2010. “Turn Down the Heat” was released
before the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) issued his own
report about climate change for year 2013/2014. There is no doubt however that
both of these publications will draw similar conclusions.
It is a
significant symbol for world governance that an institution such as the World
Bank publishes a report like Turn Down the Heat. It strands for an official acknowledgement
of the emergency regarding the stake of global warming. With such a report, the
World Bank simply calls countries in the world to act against climate change for
their own safety.
A “doomsday scenario”
Calling to action
is probably a weak word for what the World Bank aimed at triggering with this
report. This document shows what Jim Yong Kim himself called a “doomsday
scenario”. “Turn Down the Heat” makes a list of the different issues that would
be induced by such a rise in the world’s temperature. All of them are of course
a source of concern for the environment, but some of them in particular are a
direct threat for human life.
Concerning water
for instance, the report anticipates harder drought in Southern Europe, Africa,
Southern America as well as Australia. Northern Europe, Northern America and
Siberia on the contrary would be subject to wetter weather conditions. Overall
water distribution on will suffer from greater geographical disparity. Such a phenomenon
is expected to have a massive impact on some of the biggest human settlement
and richest ecosystem on Earth. For example, the World Bank mentions the Ganges’
flow will increase by 40% because of a 4°C temperature increase whereas the
Mississippi’s and the Amazon’s could decrease by 40 to 80%
The water issue
also has significant consequences over food supplies worldwide. The World Bank
provides a reminder of the fourth report by IPCC stating that global food
production might increase along with the Earth’s temperature rising between 1
and 3°C. But the production is expected to drop in case of higher temperature
rise. “Turn Down the Heat” confirms the
plausibility of this scenario, explaining that “drought-affected areas would
increase from 15.4% of global cropland today, to around 44% by 2100”. Besides, salinity
of aquifers might increase in some areas due to sea-level rise on coastal lands.
According
to the World Bank’s report, the issues that Humanity would have to face on the
Earth which temperature has raised by 4°C would simply be too huge to handle. Drought,
starvation and poverty could no longer be controlled. The aftermath of this is
crucial since it would most likely result in conflicts and wars and shatter
decades of struggle for development in the world. “A 4°C warmer world can, and
must be avoided,” said Jim Yong Kim. Along with him, developing countries
already seriously anticipate the risk since global warming puts them in the
first line.
Towards collaboration between developed and
developing countries?
The aftermath
of a 4°C rise of the Earth’s temperature would hit developing countries most badly.
“Turn Down the Heat” emphasizes on the unequal impacts of such a temperature
rise. South Asia, the Middle East, northern and eastern Africa are quoted among
the most vulnerable areas to the adverse consequences of uncontrolled global
warming. Those who have less are also those who have the most to lose in this
regard and the World Bank expressed his deepest concern that climate change
might destroys years of efforts and developing the poorest countries in the world.
Even though
global warming was first triggered by most developed countries, the emergency
is now so important that the World Bank wish developing countries to get
involved in climate change policies. Any isolate attempt would undoubtedly fail
to control global warming. “Only early, cooperative, international actions can
make that happen” concludes the report.
Countries’
perception of global warming’s stake is changing slowly around the world. Both
developed and developing countries now knows that this industry-induced worldwide
catastrophe might destroy their attempt to reach satisfying levels of
development. “Turn Down the Heat” is an alarming report issued by the World
Bank. It also is a further step toward a better tackling the issue of global
warming. The World Bank has sent a message: neither countries nor companies
around the world should underestimate their responsibility in this phenomenon.
And all economic actors have their part to play for solving it. Let us hope
this message will be heard. Our future on Earth depends on it.
